Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) Ashore
Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) Ashore is a Navy program initiative to provide resources that support preparedness of on shore naval installations in an increasingly uncertain climate of terrorist threats. It is highly important that the overall effectiveness of these investments be taken into account prior to the final procurement decision in order to insure the worthwhile allocation of resources.
Metron's AT/FP Systems Effectiveness Model aims to support Navy expenditures for AT/FP Ashore by conducting tradeoff and sensitivity analyses that determine the impact of specific investments on force protection. Top level measures of effectiveness such as the expected number of critical mission days lost, expected number of critical missions affected, and expected number of casualties are computed via Monte Carlo simulations of specifically defined threat scenarios. Each of these scenarios is developed with regard to a single naval installation and is carried through the stages of detection, assessment, warning, defense, and recovery. Event timelines are constructed by draws from probability distributions associated with activities within each stage. Information from these timelines in combination with threat and target parameters is then used to calculate the top level measures of effectiveness. These quantities are then used to assist in weighing the overall effectiveness of specific investment packages.
The AT/FP Ashore Systems Effectiveness Model is currently focused on the San Diego naval facilities, and is under development with full operational capability expected in early to mid 2006. Future research will include expansion from single installation to region-wide analysis as well as studies of the impact of Force Protection Levels on systems effectiveness.